Windsor Trainer & Jockey Stats: LSP, Strike Rates and Profits

Winners Don’t Always Profit: Why LSP Matters More Than Headcount at Windsor

There is an assumption buried in most racing coverage that the jockey with the most winners at a track is the one to follow. It is a reasonable assumption — until you run the numbers. At Windsor, the five-year data from 2021 to 2025 tells a story that flatly contradicts the headcount logic. Tom Marquand leads the course by volume with 59 winners, more than any other jockey in the dataset. Back every one of his Windsor rides at level stakes, though, and your account would be in the red. William Buick, by contrast, has ridden just 32 winners at the course over the same period — almost half Marquand’s tally — yet his level stakes profit sits at +15.57 points, according to OLBG’s HorseRaceBase data. Buick profits. Marquand does not. The difference is not about talent — both are top-tier riders — but about the types of horses they ride, the prices at which those horses are sent off, and how often the market overestimates or underestimates them at this particular track.

This distinction between winners and profits is the foundation of everything in this article. If you are only counting wins, you are reading the wrong column. Level stakes profit — LSP — is the metric that captures whether a trainer or jockey delivers value at starting price over a meaningful sample. It accounts for the odds, the strike rate and the market’s assessment of each runner. A jockey who wins 15% of the time at average odds of 8/1 is vastly more profitable than one who wins 20% of the time at average odds of 2/1, even though the second jockey wins more often. At Windsor, where evening cards attract a particular mix of handicappers, improvers and class-droppers, the gap between volume and value can be substantial.

This article covers the trainers and jockeys who have delivered — and those who have not — across five years of flat racing at Windsor. It explains how to read LSP tables, ranks the key names by profit rather than by headlines, identifies profitable pairings and offers a practical framework for using these statistics on race day. The numbers come primarily from HorseRaceBase via OLBG, supplemented by official records from the Windsor Racecourse website.

How to Read LSP Tables: Level Stakes Profit Demystified

Level stakes profit is a simple concept that trips up a surprising number of bettors. The calculation works like this: imagine you place £1 on every qualifying ride by a given trainer or jockey at Windsor, regardless of price, over a set period. If, at the end, you have more money than you started with, the LSP is positive. If you have less, it is negative. The figure represents your net gain or loss in points — one point equalling one unit staked.

An LSP of +15.57 for Buick means that if you had staked £1 on each of his Windsor rides over the past five years, you would have returned £15.57 in profit on top of your initial outlay. An LSP of -86.08 for a trainer like B R Millman means you would have lost £86.08 from an equivalent approach. The numbers are unforgiving. They do not care about near-misses, photo finishes or hard-luck stories. They measure one thing: whether backing this person’s runners at the prices the market offered would have made you money.

Strike rate — the percentage of runs that produce a winner — is the companion metric. A high strike rate looks impressive, but without profitable odds it means nothing for the bettor. A trainer running a 25% strike rate at average starting prices of 6/4 is effectively delivering what the market expected, and the LSP will hover near zero or slightly negative after the bookmaker’s margin is factored in. A trainer running a 12% strike rate at average prices of 10/1 is outperforming the market, and the LSP will be strongly positive. The interplay between these two numbers — how often they win, and at what price — is what makes LSP the metric that matters.

One caveat: LSP is sensitive to sample size and to outliers. A single 33/1 winner can swing a trainer’s LSP from negative to positive, and a run of short-priced losers can collapse a jockey’s figure even if they are riding well. Five years of data at a course like Windsor, where there are 22 flat fixtures per season, provides a reasonable sample — typically a few hundred rides for the busiest jockeys and the most active trainers — but it is not bulletproof. Treat the numbers as strong indicators rather than certainties, and update your view as new data arrives each season.

Trainers Ranked: Profit, Strike Rate and Each-Way Value

The trainer table at Windsor contains a handful of names that every regular bettor will recognise and several that they might overlook. The overlooked names are often where the value sits.

J J Bridger stands out as the most profitable trainer for each-way bets at Windsor over the past five years. His runners have returned an each-way LSP of +59.71 points from a relatively small sample — ten placings including three wins, per the HorseRaceBase dataset. Bridger trains from Sussex, operates at the lower end of the class spectrum and sends horses to Windsor that the market routinely underprices. His runners tend to be exposed handicappers — the kind of horse that lacks the profile to attract serious money but knows how to run into a place at a course with a short straight and a pace-biased layout. Each-way backers love these types, and at Windsor, Bridger delivers.

At the opposite end sits B R Millman, whose LSP over the same period stands at -86.08 points. Millman’s strike rate at Windsor is around 10% from 169 runs — meaning 17 winners from a large volume of runners. That sounds respectable until you consider that the average starting price of his winners has been too short to compensate for the 90% that did not win. The market has consistently overestimated his Windsor runners, and anyone following him blind would have haemorrhaged money. This is not a judgment on Millman’s training ability — it is a statement about market pricing at one specific venue.

Saeed bin Suroor occupies a different category entirely. His Windsor record is defined less by LSP across the board and more by his dominance of a single race: the Winter Hill Stakes. Bin Suroor has won the Group 3 contest eight times, a record that speaks to the Godolphin operation’s ability to target high-class middle-distance horses at this specific fixture, and puts him just two wins behind the all-time trainer record of ten held by the late Sir Michael Stoute. For the bettor, the lesson is narrow but valuable — when bin Suroor enters a runner in the Winter Hill, the horse deserves serious respect, regardless of the broader market view. His record in that race is not a statistical quirk; it reflects a deliberate and successful strategy.

Below the headline names, several mid-tier trainers show interesting profiles at Windsor. Yards based within a short drive of the course — trainers in Berkshire, Hampshire and Surrey — tend to know the track well and run horses that suit its idiosyncrasies. They may not top the LSP charts, but their strike rates on specific ground types or at specific distances can be worth tracking. The bettor who monitors going-specific trainer form at Windsor will occasionally find angles that the broad LSP figures miss.

There is a useful distinction between trainers who target Windsor regularly and those who send runners occasionally. The regular trainers — those with 30 or more runs in the five-year sample — produce more reliable LSP data simply because the sample is larger. Their figures are less likely to be skewed by a single big-priced winner or a freak result. The occasional trainers, by contrast, may show extreme LSP values in either direction based on just a handful of runs. When assessing a trainer you do not recognise on a Windsor card, check the number of runs first. If it is below ten, the LSP tells you very little. If it is above thirty, it starts to carry weight.

One pattern that recurs in the trainer data is the “class-dropper” angle. Trainers who occasionally send a horse down in grade to Windsor — a runner that has been competing in better company at Ascot, Newbury or Goodwood — tend to produce above-average strike rates. The horse arrives with a class edge that the handicapper has not fully erased, and the market, focused on recent form at the higher level, sometimes fails to appreciate how much easier the task becomes at a Monday evening fixture. These runners do not always show up in the LSP data because they are typically well fancied and sent off at shorter prices, but they win at a rate that makes them worth noting.

Jockeys Ranked: The Money Riders vs the Volume Riders

The Buick-Marquand comparison from the introduction is the cleanest illustration of a pattern that runs through the jockey data at Windsor. Volume and value diverge. Marquand rides at Windsor more often because he is based in the region, takes a wider range of bookings and accepts rides on horses across a broader quality spectrum. Many of those horses are short-priced favourites in weak races — the kind that win often enough to boost the headline tally but are priced too tightly to generate profit at starting price. Buick, riding primarily for Godolphin and a select group of trainers, takes fewer Windsor bookings but tends to ride horses that are either underestimated by the market or competing at a level where their class edge is genuine. The result: fewer wins, more profit.

What makes Buick’s LSP of +15.57 particularly notable is that it is achieved from a position of strength. These are not longshot winners inflating the numbers — many of Buick’s Windsor wins come on well-regarded runners that simply outperform their market price by a margin wide enough to overcome the bookmaker’s margin. That pattern suggests genuine market inefficiency: the horses Buick rides at Windsor are systematically underpriced, which points to something about the way the market views Godolphin entries at this level, or about the way Buick rides this specific track, that has not been fully absorbed into the odds.

Nicola Currie is the standout name in the each-way jockey data. Her record at Windsor shows eight placings, including three wins, and an each-way LSP of +45.52 points — an impressive return from a rider who does not command the same volume of bookings as the top-tier names. Currie rides Windsor well. She understands the pace dynamics, positions her mounts effectively through the crossover and does not panic in the short home straight. For each-way bettors in particular, a Currie booking at Windsor is a positive signal, especially on horses at double-figure prices where the each-way terms offer meaningful protection.

Among the higher-profile jockeys, the data is more nuanced. Several names who dominate the national standings show flat or slightly negative LSP at Windsor specifically. This is not unusual — top jockeys ride a large number of short-priced favourites, and the bookmaker’s margin erodes their LSP even when they ride well. The practical point for the bettor is that a big-name jockey booking does not automatically add value at Windsor. It may indicate that the horse is well regarded, but the market already knows that and prices accordingly. The value — the positive LSP — tends to sit with jockeys who ride at Windsor regularly, know the track intimately and are booked on horses where the market has not fully adjusted for their course expertise.

One historical note worth mentioning: Richard Hughes rode seven winners from eight rides in a single day at Windsor on 15 October 2012, one of the most remarkable single-day performances by any jockey at any British course. That record is unlikely to be broken at Windsor — or anywhere else — and it serves as a reminder that on the right day, with the right bookings, a jockey who understands this course can dominate it completely.

Profitable Pairings: When Trainer Meets Jockey at Windsor

Individual trainer and jockey stats are useful, but the real edges often emerge when you look at specific pairings. A trainer who shows a modest overall LSP at Windsor may have a significantly better record when paired with one particular jockey, because that jockey suits the running style of the horses the trainer sends to the course. The reverse is also true — a profitable jockey’s figures may be inflated by one or two trainers who consistently provide well-suited mounts.

The data from HorseRaceBase allows you to filter by trainer-jockey combination, and the results are revealing. Certain pairings produce LSP figures that are markedly better than either the trainer or jockey achieves independently. This is not random. It reflects genuine compatibility — a trainer who prepares horses for front-running tactics paired with a jockey who excels at making the running at Windsor, or a trainer with strong form on soft ground paired with a jockey who rides the bends well in testing conditions.

Identifying these combinations requires patience. You need to track not just who wins but how they win — the style, the ground, the distance. A pairing that thrives over five furlongs may be irrelevant over a mile. A combination that profits on good going may struggle on soft. The data is there, but it demands more than a glance at the summary table. It demands filtering by the conditions that actually applied on race day.

There is a broader context to these numbers, too. The pool of horses available for trainers to send to any British course is shrinking. “Whilst it might seem a long way off, work has already started on the 2027 fixture list and, with horses numbers continuing to fall, there is clearly a difficult question to be answered about what size of fixture list will be sustainable by then,” the BHA acknowledged in late 2025. At Windsor, with its 22 flat fixtures per season, the effect is felt in the variety of runners rather than the volume — the same trainers tend to recycle horses across multiple fixtures, and pairings that work become self-reinforcing as trainers and jockeys develop familiarity with specific horses on this specific course. For the bettor, this means that a profitable combination from the first half of the season is more likely to remain profitable in the second half than at a course where the runner pool changes more dramatically.

The practical method is to build a shortlist of five or six trainer-jockey pairings that have demonstrated positive LSP at Windsor over the current and previous seasons. When one of those pairings appears on a racecard, it gets automatic consideration — not as a blind bet, but as a runner that has already passed an initial filter. From there, the decision moves to form, going, draw and price. The combination data is the first screen, not the final verdict.

Putting the Data to Work on Race Day

Knowing that Buick profits and Marquand does not at Windsor is interesting. Using that knowledge properly on race day is a different skill. The mistake most bettors make with trainer and jockey data is treating it as a standalone system — backing every Buick ride, opposing every Millman runner — without integrating it with the rest of their analysis. That approach will produce occasional wins but will not generate a consistent edge, because LSP data captures historical tendencies, not certainties about the next race.

The better approach is to use trainer and jockey stats as one layer in a multi-layered assessment. Start with the race conditions: distance, going, field size. Narrow the field based on form and class. Then apply the trainer and jockey filter. A horse that looks good on form, suits the conditions and is trained and ridden by a combination with positive Windsor LSP is a significantly better proposition than a horse that ticks only one of those boxes. The LSP data adds confidence to selections that are already justified on other grounds. It should not create selections from nothing.

Timing matters too. Trainer and jockey form at Windsor can fluctuate within a season. A trainer who starts the year with a string of winners may cool off as the summer progresses and the handicapper catches up with the stable’s horses. A jockey who rides the course well in May may lose form by August for reasons entirely unrelated to Windsor. Checking the most recent two or three meetings’ results, in addition to the five-year figures, gives you a sense of whether the historical trend is currently active or dormant.

Price is the final variable that ties everything together. A horse trained by Bridger and ridden by Currie in an each-way race at Windsor is a nice profile — but only at the right price. If the market has already factored in their Windsor records and the horse is sent off at 5/2 when the form says 7/2, the value has evaporated. LSP data is most powerful when the market has not fully adjusted for course-specific tendencies, and that tends to happen at bigger prices rather than shorter ones. The 8/1 shot with the right trainer and jockey at Windsor is where the profits sit, not the 2/1 favourite.

Three Numbers to Check Before Every Windsor Bet

Before placing any bet on a Windsor flat race, check three things. First, the trainer’s LSP at the course over the past three to five years. A strongly negative figure is a warning sign that should not be ignored without a compelling reason. Second, the jockey’s LSP — and, specifically, the each-way LSP if you are considering an each-way bet. The jockeys who place consistently at Windsor are not always the ones who win most often, and each-way value often hides in plain sight with riders like Currie who know how to ride the figure-of-eight for a frame rather than just for the win. Third, the trainer-jockey combination’s record. A pairing with positive LSP is worth more than either party’s individual figure, because it captures the specific compatibility that produces results at this track.

None of these numbers should be the sole basis for a bet. They are filters — tools for narrowing the field and identifying where value is most likely to sit. Combine them with form, going, draw and pace analysis, and you have a framework that captures more of the information available to you than most bettors use. Windsor rewards preparation, and these three statistics are among the quickest and most effective ways to prepare. Profits, not just winners — that is the principle that runs through every table in this article, and it is the principle that should run through every Windsor bet you place.